Population growth and Australia's 2020 greenhouse gas emission commitments (journal article)
by Bob Birrell and Ernest Healy
from People and Place Vol 17 No 4 pp.18-28
"The Australian Government has stated an unconditional commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by five per cent on year 2000 levels by 2020. However, in the absence of new abatement measures, Treasury-led modelling indicates that Australia's emissions will grow from 553 milion tonnes in 2000 to 774 million tonnes in 2020. This article disaggregates the Treasury modelling in order to estimate the contribution of population expansion to this growth. It shows that 83 per cent of the forecast will be attributable to population growth. This article concludes that it is very unlikely we will achieve the target by 2020 in the absence of attention to the population growth factor."